20. Nov, 2020

AM-PM Roundup Gold, silver down at midday but up from daily lows

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(Kitco News) - Gold and silver futures prices are lower in midday U.S. trading, but have bounced up from their daily lows. The metals could not catch a bid today despite a bit keener risk aversion seen in the marketplace late this week, evidenced by wobbly U.S. stock indexes. Such continues a recent phenomenon of gold prices tracking the stock indexes when they sell off. A firmer U.S. dollar index today is also working against the precious metals market bulls. December gold futures were last down $12.60 at $1,861.30 and December Comex silver was last down $0.483 at $23.965 an ounce.

Increasing restrictions on businesses and the public in the U.S. and Europe, to fight off the out-of-control Covid-19 pandemic, are starting to bite global equity markets, after they had been looking past the matter because of the upbeat vaccine news recently. Hope has been clashing with fear in the marketplace, and on this day it appears fear is winning the battle. New U.S. Covid infections topped 170,000 Wednesday and the U.S. death toll has moved above a quarter-million citizens.

News reports said Goldman Sachs is forecasting bull markets in raw commodities as a hedge against impending inflation. Goldman forecast a return of around 27% over the next 12-months on the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) index, with a 19% return for precious metals, 40% for energy, 3% for industrial metals and a -1% return on agriculture. The grain futures markets are already in a major bull run. Goldman reportedly kept its target of $2,300 an ounce for gold and $30 an ounce for silver.

The U.S. dollar index is higher early today on a corrective bounce from selling pressure earlier this week. Many analysts are predicting further depreciation in the coming months for the greenback on the foreign exchange market. The other important outside market sees January Nymex crude oil futures prices lower and trading around $41.65 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note futures is currently trading at 0.85%.

Technically, the gold bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage but are fading again. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close in December futures above solid resistance at $1,900.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the November low of $1,848.00. A drop below that level would produce serious near-term technical damage to suggest a fresh leg down in prices. First resistance is seen at today’s high of $1,872.60 and then at Wednesday’s high of $1,884.20. First support is seen at today’s low of $1,850.00 and then at $1,848.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 6.5


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